Which will have a better residual value - 996 or 997?

Hi guys, I am in the market for for a 911, but in doing some research, I can't figure out if over the long term the 996 or 997 will be better. I am looking at either a newer 996 C4S, or just jumping to a std 997 Carrera. Ideally, either car would have around 30k miles, and I'll most likely drive it until close to 100k. At 100k and 4-5 years, which one will be the better buy (yes, I know I am posting in a 996 forum)? Thanks. Nick

Quotes source post: 6942551

If I had a crystal ball that I could see into the future I sure as heck woudn't waste it on determining which used car would lose less money over the next 4 years and have the better residual value. The best residual value would be to leave the car purchase money in the bank. The 996 will likely be cheaper to buy and because it has less value starting out and is already older and a model year down depreciate less. Its value won't increase but it will lose less value over the years. It seems these cars in general reach a certain point then the value doesn't drop much if not at all. In some cases -- though I don't know the 996 will see this -- values can rise a bit even. The 997 will be of course the younger car and provided by that time no inherent weaknesses in the car will have more residual value but you will have started out paying more for the car to begin with and suffered more depreciation. My advice would be to just search out a good example of either model. Find and buy the best example of either model. Try to find a car you like, is in good condition, pay a good price for it and then drive the car and enjoy it. Take good documented care of the car and you'll do as well as anyone when it comes time in 4 years to move it on. The biggest depreciation hit will be suffered by the original buyer provided you do not over pay for the car and absorb some of the depreciation the seller should. Oh, in general any used car that reaches 100K miles generally will see another "big drop" in resale value. There's something about 100K miles... My point is if you are reall worried about residual value do not drive the car you buy over 100K miles. Stop driving the car at something less than 100K mile mark. Sincerely, Macster.

FS - car with over 100k miles PM for details

I don't think either will retain their value well, given the large production numbers for both series. The economy will play a role, too - but 4-5 years is a long time off. I would buy the car you can afford and really love, whether it's a 996 or 997. The 997 is probably a better car technologically, but there's something very classic about a 996. Too bad - you missed mine by a month.

There won't be a huge model specifc diifference I don't think. To the general public, the cars aren't really that different. I bet most just view the 997 as a facelift, and production numbers aren't low enough for cult status. I would expect a slight difference for the 99s perhaps as the first model year (plus throw in something for the "engine failure" thing).

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I agree. I'm going to buy a car to enjoy and drive. I'm not going to worry about residual value everytime I start the car.

996 C4S

996 C4S!!! But u can't have mine!

997 Because it will always be newer and more "advanced" than a 996. Of course the difference being the 4S is an AWD car.......is that a requirement for you? If it is, why look at a 2WD car?

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The '99 isn't really the first model year for the 996. For the US, yes. But there are '98 models in Europe and beyond, and I've even read that a few 97s made it to South America.

997 less perceived issues plus newer and faster. I think they are just too new that the 997 won't sell for more then a 996 when you want to sell but you will pay more now as well.

996 C4s, but it can't have a sunroof.

4WD isn't a requirement, but is a nice to have. Being in Indiana, it would really payoff about 5 days a year. Aside from the 4WD, the turbo bumper is another draw (yes, I know, superficial). Just curious to see what everyone's thought is...

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+1 sums it up well.

If you're really picking between an 04 C4S and an 05 C2 (non-S), you should really drive them both and decide from there. I thought they were very different from behind the wheel. I liked the C4S better (drive experience and looks), and thought it was more car for the $. Thats why I ended up with a lower mileage 2002. Its the same car as a 2004, but much cheaper - although you'd choke to see what I paid 18mos ago compared to today

The cars have at least to date depreciated similarly in terms of black book (although early 997s seemed to drop a little harder than early 996s since the early 996s were resold into a buoyant credit market and the early 997s were resold into a severe credit crunch) That having been said, assuming this continues, the 996, solely due to age therefore dependent on model year, should cost less in absolute dollars to purchase than the 997, so the loss to depreciation should be lower in absolute terms. I will compare CPO C2 cars so that warranty repair costs will be apples to apples comparable between the two and the premium potentially associated with C4S can be removed from the equation, but say you bought an 03 or 04 996 for 35K (CPO) vs an 05 997 for 40K (CPO) Assume both cars will depreciate a minimum of 20% each in the purchase year (due to sales tax, dealer profit, CPO cost, etc inflating the buy price above the most efficient market price at auction) For each subsequent year, you will lose a declining percentage, so if one were to assume that credit and general economic factors affecting purchasing power and demand do not decline precipitously from their current position, let's assume that: - the 997 depreciates 20% 10% 9% 8% 7% over the next 5 years - the 996 depreciates 25% 8% 7% 6% 5% over the same period (because the CPO premium is higher as % value here) Why do I make this assumption? because the older car has a higher percentage margin over auction price in its purchase price so it has more to lose initially, however it also already has 2 years of additional depreciation priced in so its ongoing depreciation is later in the overall depreciation curve for the model year. The 997 at the end of this exercise will be worth ~22K, low side maybe 18-19 (so you lose ~18K to maybe 22) The 996 at the end of this exercise is worth ~20K maybe a touch high, perhaps $16-17 on the low (you'll lose ~15K to maybe 19K worst case) That in my book is pretty close to a wash. How close is that to reality? MY2000 cars are often advertised @ ~22K at 90-100K . Auction much lower particularly in CA, but they are at a disadvantage currently in terms of credit on both ends, along with some major supply/demand inequities How close is my crazy depreciation model to those of the big prognosticators'? Here's Edmunds TCO for a 2004 C4S vs a 2005 C2 True Cost to Own� 2005 Porsche 911 Carrera Rwd 2dr Coupe (3.6L 6cyl 6M) True Market Value Price $35,297 Sales Tax & Fees for Your State $3,426 Total Cash Price $38,723 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 5-yr Total Depreciation $3,586 $3,139 $2,803 $2,546 $2,336 $14,410 True Cost to Own� 2004 Porsche 911 Carrera 4S AWD 2dr Coupe (3.6L 6cyl 6M) True Market Value Price $34,423 Sales Tax & Fees for Your State $3,343 Total Cash Price $37,766 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 5-yr Total Depreciation $3,542 $3,097 $2,767 $2,514 $2,309 $14,229 Notice they smooth the curve, whereas I use more of a cliff and slope Remember if buying a car without a warranty, the same way that the depreciation is marginally lower on an older car, the maintenance and repair budgets are marginally higher. I would estimate that the deal would scrub in that case and therefore would be heavily in favor of the 997 unless AWD was desired. If you were to ask me, I'd say if looking at 03-05 996 C4S or even C2 vs 05 997, cpo to cpo or no warranty to no warranty, buy the 997. Final words of advice, buy the very newest 911 you can comfortably afford if you plan on driving it frequently, and don't forget to get the one that you want deep down inside!

993

post #16 ended my night - DAYAM !thats a lot of real well thought out numbers....I had to read it twice and then had only one thought - do you want to be my finacial advisor

I'd guess 997.. The 996 is the "midyear" of the watercooled cars.. unloved by many. I also think total 997production numbers will be lower than the 996. I guess what I am saying it that in 4-5 years I'd pay more for a 997 than I would a 996.

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+1 That is an awesome analysis. Down to the last word. So often we hear the mantra "buy the nicest you can afford," but so rarely the proper addional point of factoring in how much you will drive the car, and adjusting your cost window accordingly.

call911: Sounds like you need a 99-C2-Cab! 99C2

yup don't think we can argue with htny's thorough analysis....mine is more intuitive. People seem to like the 997 more, so apples to apples (say a 04 996 vs 05 997, both normals, same mileage and colour) I'd guess the 997 would be easier to sell in 4-5 years than the 996. Could you get more money....maybe a grand or two, but really how important is that. Buy the car *you* like best now. I like the 996 but all else equal (I think) I'd rather have a 997. For me it was a no brainer because I couldn't touch a 997 for what I paid for my 2002 996.