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YOUR RESEARCHWhy the dip in '03's
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Check respected website researching appliances and decided
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Read evidence and context
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Suggestion · Original poster
Was checking a respected website researching Appliances and decided to check out the car reports.
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Suggestion
If that's true, then predicted repair rates are likely to be most accurate for any one make of car when that make has the same average mileage as the average of all vehicles in the population.
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Suggestion
Sure, age is also part of the story, but I'd bet that older cars have greater repair rates overall because they've gone farther than newer cars.
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If that's true, then predicted repair rates are likely to be most accurate for any one make of car when that make has the same average mileage as the average of all vehicles in the population.
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Was checking a respected website researching Appliances and decided to check out the car reports. Porsche 911 rated best in class down the line for most model years 98-2007 except the 03's. Below average on engines, transmissions etc...what gives, I thought 99-00 were the problem childs, but service records and records dip really bad in the 03 model year.
What gives...changes in that year???
I think I have one of those surveys laying around. It could fail tomorrow leaving a trail of engine parts behind me as I limp down the road but my survey responses will be sparkling. I want my '03 to have good resale value.
Then your best bet is to sell it now.
Eh, I know you're making a funny, but the day I take Consumer Retort's advice for buying a car is the day I buy a Toyota Camry, aka "never".
You know, I think I'm actually glad my 2000 has dropped so much in value...now I have no reason to evern consider getting something else. I'd take too much of a bath on the resale of mine.
Nope, I'm keeping this one for the long haul. I plan to see 100,000 before I start thinking about a replacement...
The drop worked out well for me - made 2003 a very easy decision to select what year 996 I wanted - with no real difference for the 2004 in reliability. I have my doubt on the statical significance of the reports numbers.
I saw the low scores for '03's on CR's list. Could only guess it was a sampling anomaly. Doesn't make sense in that it is the second year of the Mk II; everything should have been dialed in by then. Hope more participation over time will refine the results. Won't help resale as it is and it doesn't match any pattern I've seen in posts across the different forums. Thanks CR.
Some, but not all, of the reliability ratings for '03s might be attributable to baseline effects. CR assigns one of its five little circles by comparing the percentage of reported problems in a given area for one vehicle to the overall average of all vehicles with a given year - the baseline. For example, the baseline for major engine trouble in '01 and '02 was 2%, whereas for '03 it was 1%. So, if the rate of major engine problems reported was identical in '03 and '02, the '02s would nonetheless probably get a much better rating circle than the '03s - simply because the baseline is different.
My hunch is that 996s (and other high performance cars) are especially vulnerable to baseline effects. I assume that problem incidents in the population of vehicles are an exponential function of mileage - the farther you drive, the more stuff breaks. Sure, age is also part of the story, but I'd bet that older cars have greater repair rates overall because they've gone farther than newer cars. If that's true, then predicted repair rates are likely to be most accurate for any one make of car when that make has the same average mileage as the average of all vehicles in the population. That's because the effects of mileage cancel out, and any remaining differences between that make and the overall population can be attributed to other factors such as initial quality or year-to-year differences. But when a particular make - like the 996 - goes half as far or less per year than all the other makes in the population, the effects of mileage on reliability don't cancel out in the data - especially in comparing across years. My '01 996 looks great on the CR reliability chart, but that's due in part to the low average mileage of '01 996s relative to the general population of vehicles (mine, for example, has 34K).
So, all this is to say that the CR ratings for 996s would be much more believable if the actual mileage of every vehicle surveyed was part of the analysis (i.e. statistically controlled). Only then would it be possible to separate year-to-year differences from mileage effects.
