How low will they go?

In the August edition of Excellence an article titled "Market Watch" (pg71) states "Its safe to assume the 996 and 997 generation 911s will continue to depreciate..." so the question is how low will they go? The range in the article is (coupe): $18,000 for 1999 in average condition to $35,000 2004 in excellent condition. How much lower and when is the bottom?

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There's NO WAY I'd pay Anywhere CLOSE to $35k for a 2004 996 (you can find Decent 996's 00'-02' for $18-$21k all day)! I Wouldn't even pay $35k for a 2004 Turbo 996! 997's are a Lil' different story! jmo!

^^ sounds about right. Got my 01 C4 for 20K with 90K on the odometer. While the mileage was somewhat high for my taste at the time, it had clean maintanance records and the interior/exterior was in excellent condition.

I guess I should have bought a civic since they seem to hold value better :/

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I paid 26,500 for my 04 C4S Cab. I think I can get 23 - 24,500 for it now with high mileage, but I'm not planning or looking to sell it. Bought it to enjoy. Now if I can pick up another 03-04 for in the teens I will, to have an extra motor, trans and body parts car that would be great. How low can they go, I don't know but that's great for me

My guess is low teens for high mileage mkI examples before it stabilizes. Don't know when/if they'll start going back up, but probably be a few years. I don't think they'll go much lower (exceptions noted) because of the Porsche prestige and ever increasing value of earlier models so far. If they get any cheaper, pretty soon you're comparing values vs. a 100k Honda Civic, and that makes a no-brainer for shallow pockets.

If the bottom comes, it will be similar to the 914's, when most of the inventory is gone from abuse, disuse, or at the hands of dismantlers (unlike the 914, however, I don't expect rust to eat a decent percentage of inventory). However, expecting prices to rebound (as has been suggested here in various ways, with differing amounts of acrimony) may not happen soon, if ever. The C4 Corvette is a _decent_ platform - certainly not as nimble as the 996, but an acceptable foundation for building a decent track car, and fairly easy to restore - but there are so damn many of them, there's just not enough demand to outpace supply and drive up prices. While Porsche may not have stamped out as many 996's as Chevrolet did C4's - 366,227 C4 Corvettes vs. about half that many 996 Porsches of various flavors and editions - once the numbers are up into the hundreds of thousands, it's gonna be a wait. It is not unreasonable to think that a mass-produced sports car will eventually become collectible. It may be unreasonable to assume it will happen in our lifetime.

They will always be worth more than boxsters so at least we have that. I cant see them ever getting below 10k. Decent 944s are 4- 7k. I also think 997s will hit the same values. There are alot of them too

Well, I think it's time to slap the laptop closed and go do my best to further depreciate my 996.

I think the market can be better compared to the red-headed step child of the mfg - the 928. You can buy a ratty but running 928 for $3k. Even the best examples of non-GT/GTS will only get ~$25k. High end GTS may get $50, but that is far and way the exception. I see the 996 headed in the same direction due to the IMS, AOS, etc. As they go down in value, things are let go, then it sits for a few months, then the int starts to wear, and finally it's in the hands of someone who won't maintain it and it'll suffer. Particularly true of the electronic gremlins that plague the 928. There will be a bottom for the average cars, like the black/gray/silver 99-01 without much demand, and I think it will reach ~$10k. Below that it's a breakers car.

I'd be interested to know what the total # of U.S. 996(all variants) are still on the road. I just did an auto trader search of 99-04 996's and came up with 1,042 for sale. Did the same search for corvettes and came up with 2,133. 1981-2015 corvettes for sale on auto trader. 11,676 1981-2015 911's 6,323. This isn't an exact count in any way but there is at least twice as many vettes for sale. Still a high number or 911's available regardless.

The well cared for pristine cars will always find a buyer that just has to have that car, he will spend the extra money if he has it because his priority is the car not the price. The typical Rennlister is usually not one of those type of buyers although there are exceptions. Most 996 buyers are average middle class buyers with a family and money is the priority. They are looking for a deal and the 996 is in their price range. The cars are fantastic to drive and an unbelievable value compared to anything with similar performance, styling, and class. Most Porsche owners have never been on this site and most regular folks do not know anything about a 996 or any other Porsche, they just know its a Porsche and it must be great. The prices are likely to get even lower as the folks with money will buy later models and the abundance of the 996 sellers will be left trying to sell to those with limited dollars who can't afford a newer or better model. Those of us who like the cars even with the headlights and other things people badmouth have been lucky to get one of these at such an incredible price, remember what they sold for when new. I just got home from a 650 mile trip and loved every minute of the drive. I hope to drive the car for many more miles and as long as the prices stay low I'll probably never sell it.

Like real state : "It always looks better in 20 years", I wonder in 20 years how many 996 will be left in drivable or collectible condition. Is the first water cooled engine in a 911 with a set of distinct headlights, either you like it or not the car represents a transition for Porsche and it has to come with a value in the not to near future.

High production numbers means I can always find mechanics and parts. I say bring on $9k wash out the weak hands.

Edited. mine is priceless

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I think we've seen the bottom however... This is one of the few 911's a person can buy cheap and not really "worry" about it becoming valuable. Which means that this is the one you buy (or 997 for that matter) if you want a daily driver that can eat up the miles and not make you feel guilty. What I think is going to happen is that people are going to buy these, put another 3-5 years of daily use on them, and in that many years we're going to have even higher mile ones out on the market. Due to that I think the prices are going to stay around where they are now, of course with lower mile ones going higher. Well and also I think a lot of collectors are going to start buying into these as a daily as well, since the old ones may turn into more of an investment than what they are worth to use on the roads.

It is all about supply. The reason why the 993s are worth so much is because Porsche didn't sell many of them. They sold a ton of 996s of course. The ironic thing is that it is the 996s dedicated and almost cult following that is going to keep the prices from rebounding. The 914s have rebounded because for a long time it didn't have a following. So when the cars rusted or blew an engine or wore out, they were junked. That will not happen to very many 996s. You can put a rebuilt engine into a 996 for $20K. That sounds like a lot but it is still cheaper than buying a low mileage 996 or 997. $20K for effectively a brand new 996 is a very good deal and will continue to be so. So what is going to happen is people are just going to keep maintaining and rebuilding these cars and the overall supply will stay high. Sure, they wont' make any more of them and every year some of them are totaled or junked, but not that many. My guess is the 996 will remain the best buy in sports cars for a while. I think the reputation of the 996 is going to rebound quite a lot and already has. It is in many ways the last real analog 911. The 997 comes with a lot more electronics. As time goes on and the emotion of the switch to water cooling wears off and more and more people have only known water cooled 911s, the switch to water cooling will seem less significant. People will see the 911 as the evolution it is and every older generation more analog, more different from the new cars and more fun to drive. And the reputation of the 996 will rise accordingly, even though the supply of them ensure the prices remain reasonable.

I think the value of 996 Turbos is only going to go up. They can legitimately claim to be the last true track to street engine Porsche ever made. They just took the LM GT cars and detuned the engine to 400 HP from 700 HP. And it is of course the last Metzger designed engine for whatever that is worth, which is a lot to some people. They didn't make a huge number of them and they are amazing cars. Think about it, what is the objection to the 996 Turbo? The headlights? That is so stupid of an objection as to be beneath response. If you are buying your cars based on their headlights, you don't deserve a car like that. That they are water cooled? Okay, so what? A 993 Turbo goes for well into six figures. What exactly do you get with one that you don't with a 996 other than the poser factor of owning an air cooled 911? Nothing that I can see. The 996 is a better car in nearly every respect. And looks better too in my opinion. And even if it doesn't, how much can poser factor and a slight difference and looks be worth? Not a $100,000. Of the NA 996s, maybe I am biased since I own one, I think the 4S has a chance to retain some of its value and perhaps gain some. Even the most irrational 996 haters admit the 4S with its curves and wide body is a beautiful car and one of the better looking 911s ever made. Like the Turbo, they didn't make just a huge number of them. I could see their values rebounding a little. I am glad the prices are not rebounding. I didn't buy my car for an investment. And the lower prices makes 996 owners as a group by far the most pleasant Porsche owners in existence. No one buys a 996 to pose. You buy one because you wanted a really amazing car to drive and track. This fact makes 996 owners more often in touch with what the cars are about. Too many 911 owners remind me of Harley owners. So many Harley owners bought their bikes to look at and talk about rather than to ride. 911 owners often have a bad habit of being the same. Not 996 owners. You buy one of those to drive and have fun.

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That and their are air cooled, and no one really wants to collect run of the mill water cooled cars quite yet. Turbos and others, yes, regular ones no.

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Well put, TT prices have risen a little in the last few months and the number of cars for sale seems to have dropped by half since nov-feb.

I think those values in Excellence are on the high side. I see my car listed at the mid 20s for a car in fair condition. That's what I bought mine for six years ago! If that is the case then great but I think they're being a bit aggressive with the pricing.

In case y'all aren't paying attention, we will all be driving cars with electric motors soon enough, and whether a combustion engine is air or water cooled isn't gonna matter.

Had a huge discussion regarding this issue with electric engines a couple of days ago with some friends. Many people believe that in some years our cars will actually be a stupidness to own comparing with the cost of owing and driving an electric car. I had a ride in a Tesla some weeks ago and realized it was really fast while couldn't hear anything! However nothing can be compared with the sound of my car!!! Maybe our cars will end up in a museum for exhibition!

KBB, who've been doing this for a while disagrees with the 'getting better' argument. 01 996 with 98k miles in VG cond selling by private party worth $16.5k. Read it and weep. If you are relying on Excellence, get your money back. http://www.kbb.com/porsche/911/2001-...=private-party

Electric cars are nothing but glorified golf carts. The laws of physics are going to prevent them from ever being a viable substitute for the internal combustion engine. Teslas are nothing but overpriced toys. Without government subsidizes in the tens of millions approaching the billions, Tesla would have long since gone bankrupt. We haven't reached anything close to peak oil. In fact we are swimming in the stuff. And populations are not going to consign themselves to poverty and public transport for the AGW religion. So, I would not worry about electric cars being anything but a novelty item for a very long time.

We may be combusting different materials _someday_ - like hydrogen or oxygen - or, better yet, powering a big-*** fuel cell and sending juice to in-hub electric motors - but we'll still be burning or catalyzing something in real-time. Burning hydrocarbons to send electricity to battery chargers in your garage is a nifty interim step, but it's stupid on a countrywide scale. Building out the electrical infrastructure and installing chargers in every garage so everyone in the country can charge their cars at the same time, creating a massive usage spike during what has traditionally been a non-peak usage period, is the wrong way to go about revolutionizing the automobile. In addition to being a massive current draw, between generation loss, heat loss in the charger, and charge/discharge efficiency rates, charging your car at home overnight wastes about 50% of the energy used. Once you factor in the thermal efficiency of the process from generation (close to 50% efficiency for newest power generation stations, far less for older stations used during peak consumption, sending it to you over high-tension wires (after stepping the voltage up and back down, both of which are lossy processes), running it through your garage-mounted inverter/charger into a bank of batteries, and turning the stored energy back into mechanical energy after accounting for thermal loss from the batteries, controllers, and motors, you're looking at what, 5-20% thermal efficiency? The 20-30% thermal efficiency of modern gasoline engines doesn't sound quite so criminal when you consider that the electricity coming out of the wall doesn't get there magically...

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KBB is not perfect either. It gives you the "sell it now" price, which is of course a bit low. The price of any car is within a range depending on how long the seller is willing to wait for his price.

The magazine is not being realistic. That price range is way off. The good news is that falling prices are great for the buyer looking for a 996 NA!

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The problem with fuel cells is that there is no easy way to separate hydrogen. You end up spending a lot of money pulling hydrogen off of coal or something that you could more easily just burn for energy. A hydrogen powered fuel cell car is a thousand times better than a battery operated one. But you will never be able to get a cheap supply of hydrogen without some real advances in technology.

Yeah, that's the rub - all of the "magic" solutions do not include the massive amount of non-magic generation/refining/whatever that has to go on in the background to make it happen. But, maybe some really smart guy will discover the magic catalyst to break water cheaply, and then we'll all live happily ever after. Except here in CA - we got no damn water anyway. Until then, my primary quest will be to find >91 octane gas in the socialist paradise known as Southern CA...

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This is true. At some point it will be impossible for me to resist the urge to purchase a second 3.4 996 - buying a second car will be cheaper than sourcing a used/refurbished engine.

+ 1 for your avatar When I got the GT3, I kept my '03 996 for the simple reason I'd buy it for what I could get if I sold it to some stranger. Screw that. I'll keep it and enjoy it.

Bought my 2000 996 Cab in December for $17k w/40k original. KBB Private Party value then was $17k. KBB says it's now worth $24k-I think it's coming back!

I still say a 996 Targa will gain in value. They made fewer Targas than Turbos, ~ 5100 vs 9100

I was surprised and pleased at what I got for my car when I sold it last week. And this was an indie dealer who had lots of Porsches on his lot. It was just put on his line and he doesn't think it will last the week. And the truth is that it isn't about the price, the car is just a damn good car. Now is a good time to buy a second one, put it in your barn and drive the wheels off your other one.

I found that Targa's number is actually 2693. http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-rev...-carrera-targa

No offense, but the targa's are UGLY with a bit U

Sure. Sounds legit. Super ugly.

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Top heavy also which is a big no no for any kind of serious performance car

I don't think the 996 price is going to go below $10K. Let's face it, there are a lot of older cars that are selling for pretty good price and they were also mass produced. Take the E30 for instance. Below $10K, there are a lot of other more problematic cars that in comparison the 996 will always be the purchase of choice. Yes, with any 15 - 20 or 30 year old car, it's always a gamble with the motor and people do it all the time. I think we have seen or are very close to the bottom. But don't hold your breath for prices to go up. That will not be since there will be a balance between the 996 and the depreciating 997 and let's face it some people have headlight-phobia.

Please refer to my signature - as pointed out by one of our more esteemed members, "we cannot speculate" about the Targa.

I have to say I LOVE MY TARGA!! And I love it even more when other people find it ugly! Lol I realize it even better that it's something special! 1)I don't use it in tracks so don't mind for its weight 2) it's super flexible with the top opening 3) it doesn't have the negatives of cabs 3) love the view and sound when everything is open

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+996

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that was for 2002 only total production ~5100

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No one that has ever seen my Targa thinks that at all Generally the comment is "what a beautiful car" And I like the headlights as well. Much better looking than the old round ones or the new oval ones and the flip open rear window is really cool and makes it very easy to load things in the back

I don't like pictures of targa. Then you see one in person and sit in one and it makes sense. I would pay a bit more for a targa provided the rest of the car were suitable.

Agree!